It may be warmer than normal in New Jersey this winter (December through February). Source: NOAA
This winter may be warmer and wetter than normal in New Jersey, according to federal officials.
This year's El Niño - one of the strongest on record - is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by influencing the position of the Pacific jet stream, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration statement.
NOAA's outlook - released Thursday - is somewhat similar to one issued by AccuWeather this month. New Jersey's winter is expected to be wetter and milder overall than last winter, but we may get a lot of nor'easters and one or two big snowstorms, an AccuWeather forecaster said this month.
NJ winter forecast: Milder but stormy?
Here are some observations regarding NOAA's winter outlook, which includes December through February, and the drought situation in New Jersey:
1. Strong El Nino conditions remain across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is when the water is unusually warm. The ongoing El Nino event is expected to peak in strength in late fall or early winter and diminish through the late winter and spring, according to the outlook.
2. "The greatest challenge of the forecast is the extent of cold air intrusions into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast amidst a strong El Nino. Forecast tools diverge in these areas during the winter months," the outlook says.
Nor'easter season still expected to be busy
3. “While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Nino are favored, El Nino is not the only player," Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in the NOAA statement. "Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”
4. Other factors that often play a role in winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and East Coast nor'easters, according to the statement.
5. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely on the East Coast to southern New England, the statement says.
Busy 'strong' nor'easter season forecast
6. Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the West and the northern half of the contiguous United States, the NOAA statement says.
7. Nearly 18 percent of New Jersey remains in a moderate drought, including part of northern Monmouth County, according to Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor update. About 36 percent of the state is still at least abnormally dry, including much of Monmouth.
8. In 90 days through Oct. 14, Monmouth County's precipitation shortfall averaged 2.5 inches and Ocean County's averaged 1.9 inches, according to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center. No rain is expected in the next week, according to a Weather Prediction Center map.
9. New Jersey's drought is expected to end this winter, according to a NOAA map.
10. The winter outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or give seasonal snow accumulation totals. Snow forecasts depend on the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance, according to the statement.
It may be wetter than normal in New Jersey this winter (December through February). Source: NOAA
